| Francis Fukuyama zu einer möglichen russ. Niederlage |  |
Natürlich ist das ein sehr optimistisches Gedankenspiel, aber trotzdem ist das IMO ein interessantes Szenario, das bislang so noch kaum mal angesprochen wurde: Was passiert eigentlich, wenn Russland den Bodenkrieg in der Ukraine einfach in Kürze verlieren sollte?
"Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks."
"The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses."
[https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/]
Fukuyama ist auch jemand mit einem politisch sehr bewegten Lebenslauf. Man kann westliche liberale Demokratien kaum stärker einschätzen als er es seit vielen Jahren tut. Ihn zu kennen hilft sicher bei der Einordnung seiner Prognose:
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama]
Zumindest diesen Punkt von ihm hier sehe ich zweifellos auch so kommen:
"Turkish drones will become bestsellers."