| Studie zum Handel zwischen China und Russland |  |
[https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1654430112664678400]
Key Takeaways:
Russia is struggling to find alternative suppliers of technology goods.
China is not helping: the value of Russian imports of Chinese high-tech goods has dropped by 10% over the same period (the rise in Russian imports from China is about cars).
Sanctions circumvention is not a magic bullet.
Russian high-tech imports from Kazakhstan and Turkey have increased, but from a low base and for low amounts.
Aus der Conclusion der Studie:
Russia’s technology imports have also declined substantially. Our estimate suggests that in December 2022, the value of technology imports was down by about 30 % y/y. Technology imports have dropped sharply from all sanctioning countries. Imports from China have slightly increased and imports from Turkey soared. Turkey only provides a relatively small share of Russia’s total imports.
A closer look at goods subject to EU export restrictions suggests that Russia has not been able to substitute for lost EU imports lost either at the aggregate level or for most individual goods. Exports of goods under sanctions from other countries did rise in 2022, but the volumes were still limited.
Disclaimer: Sie sagt mehrfach selber, dass das Ganze ein wenig einem Stochern im Dunklen gleicht, weil die Zahlen schwierig zu ermitteln sind oder halt ausgedacht sind, wenn sie russische Quellen haben.
Direkte Links:
[https://publications.bof.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/52738/bpb0923.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y]
[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-hasnt-come-russias-rescue]
[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-hasnt-come-russias-rescue]